The Santa Clause rally arrived early this time on Dalal Street, with the BSE benchmark Sensex and NSE barometer Nifty hitting their fresh all-time highs on December 1. In the last 20 years, the Nifty has gained 80 per cent times in December. According to a study by Samco Securities, the average monthly return in the 12 months of the year has been 3.2 per cent even in December.
Then came July when Nifty closed on a positive note 75 per cent times in the last 20 years. The average monthly return for July stood at 2.3 per cent. September is the second best month in terms of average returns with an average gain of 2.6 per cent.
On a broad basis, the Nifty 500 has given 80 per cent positive returns in December over the past 10 years, with an average gain of 2 per cent, according to Samco Securities. Nifty Metal, Nifty IT, Bank Nifty, Nifty Auto, Nifty Energy and Nifty Financial Services have also ended in positive territory 70 per cent during the month in the last 10 years. On the other hand, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Realty have given positive returns in December 60 per cent times in the last 10 years.
What will happen next?
Overall, the current year has been highly volatile for the domestic equity market so far. So far in 2022, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty have gained nearly 8 percent each. A few factors kept sentiment jittery throughout the year, including the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine, volatile flows by foreign institutional investors and rising interest rates. Meanwhile, the 30-share index Sensex and the 50-share index Nifty managed to hit their respective lifetime highs of 63,583.07 and 18,887.60 on December 1, 2022.
Noted equity investor Safir Anand believes that the market should be in a better position in 2023, especially if global supply chains and logistics are sorted out and inflation which is showing some signs of easing eases over stress. Is. “Most of the US Fed’s impact will be in the system as well and India should see a sweet capex uptick. I expect a 15 per cent rally in 2023 unless we have a black swan,” he said.
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